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 How to Bet Home Run Derby


steveo

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Home Run Derby

Before diving into the numbers, it’s important to understand the format.

All eight players will compete in a single-elimination bracket tournament where each player has three minutes in the first two rounds — and two minutes in the final round — to smack as many home runs as possible. Each player is seeded based on how many home runs they’ve hit up to now (more on that shortly).

While many will claim Dodger Stadium is more of a pitcher’s park, Statcast tells a different story. Its approach looks at a three-year rolling average of home runs observed and how those pitchers and hitters perform elsewhere. The verdict is Dodger Stadium is actually average among all 30 MLB ballparks, meaning extra power isn’t necessarily a bigger requirement than it normally is.

The problem with analyzing home runs is they are not too predictive, meaning just because a slugger has a lot of dingers does not necessarily mean he’ll continue to crank offerings out of the park. 

One statistic that is more predictive of future power is called barrel rate. When a hitter makes contact, if the exit velocity is fast enough and the launch angle is in the right range, it becomes a barrel, meaning at least 50% of the time it goes for a base hit. Barrel rate is simply the percentage of times a batted ball qualified as a barrel. I like looking at this statistic to narrow down my picks.

Now, for the numbers! For this exercise, I looked at each participant’s barrel rate this season and simulated the entire Home Run Derby 20,000 times! Here are the percentages of times each player won the simulated derby:

Kyle Schwarber: 27.72%

Pete Alonso: 11.68%

Corey Seager: 9.64%

Juan Soto: 15.19%

José Ramírez: 2.94%

Julio Rodríguez: 15.4%

Ronald Acuña Jr.: 13.28%

Albert Pujols: 4.17%

Given these numbers, here are two sluggers with real value I would bet on:

Kyle Schwarber (+300 at FOX Bet)

Not only does the Phillies outfielder have the highest barrel rate in the derby, he has the third-highest mark in MLB (21.7%). Hitting for average has been a problem this season with a BABIP of .223, but if he maintains his isolated power mark of .294, it would be the best for any season of his career. 

Schwarber also ranks in the top 15 in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate (proportion of hits with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph). With that consistency, it’s hard to imagine him tiring out over the course of the tournament.

Julio Rodríguez (+850 at FOX Bet)

In 35 derbies, only twice has a rookie won it outright. Why might the Seattle prodigy be the third? Aside from youthful energy, his power should come as no surprise. 

FanGraphs printed a prospects report ranking his raw power as a 60/70 (quite good). Rodríguez also has the highest barrel rate on his side of the bracket, meaning he would not have to face the toughest challenge in Schwarber until the finals. 

Two-time defending champion Pete Alonso is on his side of the bracket, but experience may not matter in this tournament as some might claim.

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1 hour ago, steveo said:

 

Home Run Derby

Before diving into the numbers, it’s important to understand the format.

All eight players will compete in a single-elimination bracket tournament where each player has three minutes in the first two rounds — and two minutes in the final round — to smack as many home runs as possible. Each player is seeded based on how many home runs they’ve hit up to now (more on that shortly).

While many will claim Dodger Stadium is more of a pitcher’s park, Statcast tells a different story. Its approach looks at a three-year rolling average of home runs observed and how those pitchers and hitters perform elsewhere. The verdict is Dodger Stadium is actually average among all 30 MLB ballparks, meaning extra power isn’t necessarily a bigger requirement than it normally is.

The problem with analyzing home runs is they are not too predictive, meaning just because a slugger has a lot of dingers does not necessarily mean he’ll continue to crank offerings out of the park. 

One statistic that is more predictive of future power is called barrel rate. When a hitter makes contact, if the exit velocity is fast enough and the launch angle is in the right range, it becomes a barrel, meaning at least 50% of the time it goes for a base hit. Barrel rate is simply the percentage of times a batted ball qualified as a barrel. I like looking at this statistic to narrow down my picks.

Now, for the numbers! For this exercise, I looked at each participant’s barrel rate this season and simulated the entire Home Run Derby 20,000 times! Here are the percentages of times each player won the simulated derby:

Kyle Schwarber: 27.72%

Pete Alonso: 11.68%

Corey Seager: 9.64%

Juan Soto: 15.19%

José Ramírez: 2.94%

Julio Rodríguez: 15.4%

Ronald Acuña Jr.: 13.28%

Albert Pujols: 4.17%

Given these numbers, here are two sluggers with real value I would bet on:

Kyle Schwarber (+300 at FOX Bet)

Not only does the Phillies outfielder have the highest barrel rate in the derby, he has the third-highest mark in MLB (21.7%). Hitting for average has been a problem this season with a BABIP of .223, but if he maintains his isolated power mark of .294, it would be the best for any season of his career. 

Schwarber also ranks in the top 15 in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate (proportion of hits with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph). With that consistency, it’s hard to imagine him tiring out over the course of the tournament.

Julio Rodríguez (+850 at FOX Bet)

In 35 derbies, only twice has a rookie won it outright. Why might the Seattle prodigy be the third? Aside from youthful energy, his power should come as no surprise. 

FanGraphs printed a prospects report ranking his raw power as a 60/70 (quite good). Rodríguez also has the highest barrel rate on his side of the bracket, meaning he would not have to face the toughest challenge in Schwarber until the finals. 

Two-time defending champion Pete Alonso is on his side of the bracket, but experience may not matter in this tournament as some might claim.

  • Date: Monday, July 18
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET .... tonight 
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8 hours ago, steveo said:
  • Date: Monday, July 18
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET .... tonight 

Update j-rod won the first round with 32 homers!!! Wow

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Update_ The 2022 T-Mobile Home Run Derby crowned a first-time champ at Dodger Stadium on Monday night, when Nationals superstar Juan Soto denied Mariners standout rookie Julio Rodríguez in a final round featuring a pair of rising stars from the Dominican Republic. I had Julio was really close

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16 hours ago, steveo said:

Update_ The 2022 T-Mobile Home Run Derby crowned a first-time champ at Dodger Stadium on Monday night, when Nationals superstar Juan Soto denied Mariners standout rookie Julio Rodríguez in a final round featuring a pair of rising stars from the Dominican Republic. I had Julio was really close

if A Rod won i would of won 100$ and he lost by 1 homerun and had 33 hr in the first and second! round just to lose with 18 homerune to 19

  

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